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Chile voted in favor of a new constitutional text
Post 5th November 2020
Chile voted in favor of a new constitutional text

Chile voted in favor of a new constitutional text

Constitutional Plebiscite for the elaboration of a new Constitution in Chile

The result of the Constitutional Plebiscite held in Chile last Sunday, October 25, was overwhelming in favor of the Approval for the elaboration of a new constitutional text, with the support of 78.27% of the votes compared to 21.73% of those who opted for Rejection.

Javier Larenas

Javier Larenas

Country Manager Indra Chile
Plebiscite Constitution
Chile

Source: SERVEL. http://www.servelelecciones.cl/

The concern about the health situation caused by Covid-19 was not an obstacle to achieve a majority response from the census, reaching a participation of 50.9%. This was higher among residents abroad than among in Chile, which meant breaking the 49.2% barrier that had not been surpassed in national elections since 2012 with the entry of the voluntary vote.

Source: SERVEL. http://www.servelelecciones.cl/

The president of SERVEL, Patricio Santamaría, celebrated the increase in participation, especially among young people, but also of senior adults. It is important to consider that there was an important group that could not participate because of health isolation measures due to Covid-19.

According to the post-Plebiscite monitoring published by CADEM, one of the most reputable pollsters in the country, the memory of the polled vote is very consistent with the percentages of the actual vote count (77% in favor of Approval vs 23% in favor of Rejection).

As for the profile of those who say they voted in favor of a New Constitution (Approval), there was a majority of women (79%) compared to men (76%) and it was the youngest (18 to 34 years), predominantly from the lower and middle classes, who would have given their support to the Approval.

Source: CADEM. http://www.cadem.cl/

Voters in the Santiago Metropolitan Region would have exceeded by 4 percentage points (79%) the support for the Approval compared to the support in the Regions (75%).

Most of the Approval voters ideologically identify themselves as left and independent.

In the block of Approval, the segment of students who recognize themselves as non-religious predominates.  Those who were old enough to do so and voted in the 2017 presidential elections acknowledge having done so in favor of Guillier's over Piñera's.

The main motivation for the Approval was to guarantee social rights in pensions, education and health, according to the options presented in the form.

Source: CADEM. http://www.cadem.cl/

In addition to the conclusions obtained from the sample consulted by CADEM, the combined analysis of the electoral results published together with sociodemographic and economic indices (Open database compiled by MINSAIT) corresponding to the communes allows obtaining some additional conclusions.

Deepening the behavior of participation, in the Santiago Metropolitan Region we observe differences with respect to the last Presidential elections (2nd round) of 2017. A large part of the communes where participation has grown the most have a high electoral census and a significant concentration youth population, confirming the mobilization of this group that took place on Sunday 25 and anticipated the post-Plebiscite study of CADEM.

Source: MINSAIT own elaboration. Consultation example for the Maipú commune. In the left image, the metropolitan communes where participation has grown the most compared to 2017. In the central image, the concentration of the young population. In the right image, the result of both questions with the difference in participation 2020-2017 in percentage points.

In La Pintana, Quilicura, Renca, Pudahuel, Lo Espejo and Maipú - example shown in the image- the participation has grown more than 10 percentage points with respect to that of the 2017 presidential elections, concentrating a young census of households with lower-middle income who decidedly support a new constitutional text.

Source: SERVEL. http://www.servelelecciones.cl/

With the approval of the reform through direct representation body such as the Constitutional Convention (almost 80% of the votes opted for this option over the Mixed Convention), Chile began a consultation itinerary aimed at obtaining a new constitutional text that has the maximum possible consensus among representatives. If the upward trend in participation is consolidated, whatever the final result, it will have the majority support of Chilean society.

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